Minister's Post, Fri Apr 30

Covid Review

The Worldwide numbers are not reliable, and likely are greatly underestimating the actual prevalence of Covid-19. These numbers may nevertheless give us an indication of trends.

The 7DMA (7-Day Moving Average) of new cases per day: after increasing steeply for more than 9 weeks, began leveling off this week -- though it is still going up. It is now 2.3 times what it was on Feb 20 (up slightly from 2.2 times a week ago). The 7DMA of new cases per day continues to set a new record every day.

Worldwide 7DMA of new cases as of:
Jan 11: 745,709
Feb 20: 361,254
Apr 22: 807,268
Apr 29: 829,900

The 7DMA of deaths per day, worldwide, peaked on Jan 26, and fell steadily until Mar 12 -- a decline of 43 percent over 45 days. After Mar 12, however, deaths began increasing. The 7DMA of deaths per day on Apr 29 was up 62 percent over Mar 12.

Worldwide 7DMA of deaths as of:
Jan 26: 14,459
Mar 12: 8,294
Apr 22: 12,194
Apr 29: 13,444

United States.
In the US, the 7DMA of new cases per peaked on Jan 11. New cases then fell sharply for six weeks: by Feb 21, it was down 73 percent from Jan 11. From Feb 21 to Apr 17, the rate of new cases stayed essentially flat, wavering up and down only a little: about 64,000 new cases a day, plus or minus 8,600. It's been on a slow decline this week, and, as of Apr 29 broke through the lower limit of that range -- barely. New cases per day are now lower than at any time since last Oct 14.

U.S. 7DMA of new cases as of:
Jan 11: 255,961
Feb 21: 69,452
Apr 22: 64,204
Apr 29: 54,675

Deaths have flattened out, particularly in the last couple weeks. The 7DMA of Covid deaths per day as of Apr 29 is 719 -- the lowest since last Jul 10.

U.S. 7DMA of deaths as of:
Jan 26: 3,473
Apr 1: 918
Apr 8: 783
Apr 15: 745
Apr 22: 730
Apr 29: 719

So be careful! We're not out of the woods yet.

ICYMI ("In Case You Missed It")

Here's the Apr 25 service, "More Hope, Vigor, and Strength"

Practice of the Week

Take refuge. The largest space in our congregation building is called the Sanctuary. It’s a refuge. We also need everyday refuges from challenges, sorrows, or sheer craziness of the world. Refuge is where you get refueled when you’re depleted. A refuge might be a person, a place, a memory, an idea. Whatever reliably reassures and supports you so you can let down your guard and gather strength and wisdom – that’s your refuge. curling up in bed with a good book, a meal with friends, remembering your grandmother, feeling strength in your body, trusting the findings of science, a favorite poem or wisdom text.

First: What gives you a sense of refuge? Make a written list of a few things that are refuges for you. Second: You can "take refuge" by going TO a refuge, coming FROM a refuge, or consciously abiding AS a refuge.

So fill in each of these three blanks:
I take refuge in __________.
I abide as __________.
__________ flows through me.

Third: Take a moment each day to consciously take refuge in the ways you’ve identified.

For more about the practice of taking refuge, see the post, "Take Refuge."


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